Are we a week before Italy? We are taking steps NOT to be.

One of the most common questions I receive:

We will have similar economic consequences.

Armed with the foresight of what happened to Italy and with significant differences in:

  • Geography (better air quality)
  • Cultural customs (social distancing vs greeting with kisses on cheeks)
  • Less smoking
  • Younger population
  • Different early reaction to community spread

We are poised to NOT have the same MEDICAL consequences.

The sweeping public orders since March 15 are giving us the best chance to avoid overrunning our medical system the way Italy did (particularly in the North).

Recall that ~5% of all COVID-19 patients will require ICU care (and possibly a ventilator). If a significant portion of the population develops COVID-19, then ~5% of a very large number will overrun our intensive care resources in California. This is one of the major medical consequences that Italy suffered from.

“Shelter-in-place” is aimed at preventing a massive “peak” or surge in cases, of which 5% would overrun our ICU resources here in California.

Thank you to our public officials for supporting us in this trying time.


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4 thoughts on “Are we a week before Italy? We are taking steps NOT to be.”

  1. Thanks again for doing this. I am trying to follow DPH/CA orders.
    DPH “shelter in place” order says it is ok go outside to exercise (staying 6′ away from others) Is it ok for the elderly to do this?

    1. The problem is others aren’t following this rule. I saw a jogger running past a ton of people and not trying to stay the required distance. She comes out of nowhere and fast so no one has time to react and she is huffing and puffing on all of us….

      1. This is a terrible problem. I’m trying to team up with SFPD to try to encourage everyone to follow this order for everyone’s safety.. the better we can all follow, the sooner it will end!

    2. It is okay, but please take care to avoid ANY crowded spaces. You represent a high risk group and you must be extremely vigilant to protect yourself. I would avoid any other people, and if you do go outside, try to be far away from other people in quiet nature.

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