One of the most common questions I receive:
We will have similar economic consequences.
Armed with the foresight of what happened to Italy and with significant differences in:
- Geography (better air quality)
- Cultural customs (social distancing vs greeting with kisses on cheeks)
- Less smoking
- Younger population
- Different early reaction to community spread
We are poised to NOT have the same MEDICAL consequences.
The sweeping public orders since March 15 are giving us the best chance to avoid overrunning our medical system the way Italy did (particularly in the North).
Recall that ~5% of all COVID-19 patients will require ICU care (and possibly a ventilator). If a significant portion of the population develops COVID-19, then ~5% of a very large number will overrun our intensive care resources in California. This is one of the major medical consequences that Italy suffered from.
“Shelter-in-place” is aimed at preventing a massive “peak” or surge in cases, of which 5% would overrun our ICU resources here in California.
Thank you to our public officials for supporting us in this trying time.
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